Tuesday, February 23, 2016

To be, or not to be (surprised by Trump): Part III--Poll Data

The best, and most up to date, sources of demographic information about them are recent exit polls.
In Iowa, Trump won among those whose educational attainment was a high school diploma or less. He also won among first-time caucus goers, and those who identify as Independents, Moderates, and Somewhat Conservative. Trump bested his rivals among those who believe that immigration is currently the biggest issue facing the US, and those who value presidents who "tell it like it is" and are political outsiders. Lastly, he's seen as the candidate who would most likely bring change. 

In New Hampshire, the Donald won among male and female voters of all incomes, marital statuses, educational attainment levels and ages (although one poll showed that he only won among those under age 65). He won among moderates and all conservatives; first-time voters and those who've voted before; early and late deciders; Trump took the gold among registered Republicans and independents/undeclareds. He won among those who live in rural, suburban and urban settings, and attracted a whopping 61% of the vote among those looking for an outside candidate. Trump won among those who value presidents who "tell it like it is". He's seen as the candidate who would most likely bring change, and took first place among those who view immigration, jobs, government waste and terrorism as the nation's top issues. Trumpsters are very worried about terrorism and the economy.


In South Carolina, Trump won among men, women, and people over 44 years old. He also won among every educational attainment group, save those with graduate degrees. He won among evangelicals, non-evangelicals, Republicans, independents, moderates, conservatives, veterans, and early deciders. Trump was best in show among those who value presidents who "tell it like it is", and are political outsiders. He's seen as the candidate who would most likely bring change, and took first place among those who view immigration, jobs and terrorism as the nation's top issues. His supporters are angry at government and very worried about the economy.

So, here's the composite...

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